Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 30 August - 25 September 2021

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Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 30 August - 25 September 2021

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Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 30 August - 25 September 2021

Details: Monday, 30 August 2021

Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels from 30 Aug - 03 Sep with Region 2860 rotating off the visible disk on 04 Sep. Moderate levels are also likely on 16-25 Sep as Region 2860 rotates back onto the visible disk. Very low levels are expected on 04-15 Sep.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at moderate to high levels on 30 Aug - 05 Sep due to CME influences. Normal to moderate levels are expected on 06-25 Sep.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at G1-Minor storm levels on 30 Aug and 01 Sep due to influences from the CMEs from 26 and 28 Aug, respectively. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 02-03 Sep, 11-12 Sep, and 21 Sep all due to recurrent CH HSS influences. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected for the remainder of the outlook period.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 23 - 29 August 2021

Solar activity was at moderate levels. An approximate 40 degreeeruptive filament was observed on 23 Aug with an associated CME first visible in C2 LASCO imagery at 23/0648 UTC. Region 2859 (N16,L=11, class/area Dso/50 on 26 Aug) produced a C3.0 flare on 26/1818UTC. A partial HALO CME associated with this event was observed in LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 26/1900 UTC. This event was modeled and expected to impact Earth on 30 Aug. Region 2860 (S29, L=01,class/area Eki/340 on 28 Aug) produced an M4.7 flare at 28/0611 UTC along with numerous C-class events. The M4 event was accompanied by a 1 Normal optical flare and Type II radio emission (276 km/s). Apartial HALO CME was observed in coronagraph imagery in association with this event beginning near 28/0648 UTC. This event was modeled with an arrival on 01 Sep.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels on 28-29 Aug most likely due to influences from a CME from 23 Aug. Normal to moderate levels were observed for the remainder of the highlight period.

Geomagnetic field activity reached G1-Minor storm levels on 28 Aug, and active levels on 27 Aug most likely due to influences from the 23 Aug CME. Total field reached 16 nT and Bz was at a negative 10-15 nT for several hours after CME arrival. The rest of the highlight period was at quiet to unsettled levels with a nominal solar wind.